Table 3

Estimated number of children under the age of five by province and their modelled treatment seeking for fever at the nearest public health facility

Estimated number of children under five years of age in 2009

Estimated number of children under five years of age within a PHF1 catchment

Estimated number of fever cases among children under five years of age based on MIS prevalence

Number(Percentage) of children under five years of age with fever likely to attend a PHF1

Number(Percentage) of children under five years of age with fever not likely to attend a PHF1


Region

Caprivi

8,881

8,741

2,433

1,637(67.3)

796(32.7)

Kavango

20,244

20,374

4,825

3,264(67.6)

1,561(32.4)

Kunene

8,192

7,363

1,425

588(41.3)

837(58.7)

Ohangwena

32,167

30,863

3,793

2,695(71)

1,098(29.0)

Omaheke

11,550

11,051

1,974

1,060(53.7)

914(46.3)

Omusati

27,386

26,993

3,478

2,522(72.5)

956(27.5)

Oshana

14,973

13,088

2,186

1,648(75.4)

538(24.6)

Oshikoto

19,918

23,6612

1,395

932(66.8)

463(33.2)

Otjozondjupa

18,977

18,160

3,321

1,868(56.3)

1,453(43.7)

Travel time

< 30 minutes

51,791

51,791

8,021

6,056(75.5)

1,965(24.5)

> 30 minutes - < 1 hour

98,620

98,620

14,902

11,218(75.3)

3,684(24.7)

> 1 - < 2 hours

138,219

138,219

19,035

14,136(74.3)

4,898(25.7)

> 2 - < 3 hours

160,294

160,294

20,799

15,279(73.5)

5,520(26.5)

> 3 hours

1,992

-

4,031

934(23.2)

3,096(76.8)

Probability of attendance

< 0.50

13,698

11,808

2,277

19(0.8)

2,258(99.2)

> 0.50 - < 0.60

7,820

7,908

1,356

717(52.9)

639(47.1)

> 0.60- < 0.70

18,944

18,963

2,928

1,925(65.7)

1,003(34.3)

> 0.70- < 0.75

120,862

121,615

18,269

13,553(74.2)

4,716(25.8)


Total

162,286

160,2943

24,830

16,214 (65.3)

8,616 (34.7)


1. PHF is an abbreviation for 'Public Health Facility', which in this case does not include private facilities or privates for profit

2. For Oshikoto region, the estimated number of children (0-4 years) slightly exceeds the overall population estimate for the region. This is because the catchment boundaries in some cases overlap the regional boundaries

3. The total number of children 0-4 years old in catchment boundaries was lower than the total estimated under fives population because of (a) not all children within the catchment were assumed to use the public health facility (b) the catchment boundaries did not covering 100% of the entire population by limiting maximum travel time to 3 hours from the decay model

Alegana et al. International Journal of Health Geographics 2012 11:6   doi:10.1186/1476-072X-11-6

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