Table 2 |
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|
Modelled estimates of the effects of climatic covariates on malaria incidence in the districts of Zimbabwe, including spatial and temporal variance. The smaller value of DIC indicates a better fitting model. |
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| Covariates |
Non spatial Model |
Spatial Model |
Spatial-temporal model |
|
|
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| IRR (95% CI) |
IRR (95% CI) |
IRR (95% CI) |
|
| Mean temperature (°C) |
5.332 (4.700, 5.885) |
6.533 (4.251, 8.812) |
7.634 (6.890, 8.349) |
| Maximum temperature (°C) |
0.440 (0.414, 0.485) |
0.363 (0.306, 0.446) |
0.291 (0.272, 0.322) |
| Minimum temperature (°C) |
0.700 (0.657, 0.752) |
0.479 (0.357, 0.623) |
0.500 (0.412, 0.581) |
| Vapour pressure (hPa) |
1.003 (0.998, 1.008) |
1.036 (1.020, 1.050) |
1.018 (1.005, 1.028) |
| NDVI |
2.700 (2.267, 3.132) |
1.478 (1.011, 2.256) |
1.375 (0.913, 1.701) |
| Rainfall (mm) |
1.017 (1.012, 1.021) |
1.005 (0.999, 1.011) |
1.006 (1.000, 1.012) |
Spatial variation ( ) |
1.346 (1.078, 1.673) |
18.620 (15.280, 22.710) |
|
Temporal variation ( ) |
0.004 (0.001, 0.010) |
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| DIC |
8414.270 |
8113.280 |
7912.610 |
|
|
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|
NDVI – normalized difference vegetation index; DIC – deviance information criterion; IRR – incidence rate ratio; CI – credible intervals |
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Mabaso et al. International Journal of Health Geographics 2006 5:20 doi:10.1186/1476-072X-5-20 |
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