Table 3 |
|||||||
|
Sensitivity analysis of the model. Data from the traps presented in Figure 5 are used in these analyses. For the starting condition: a. 7°C for 3 day average, b. 6°C for 3 days, c. 8°C for 3 days and d. 7°C for 2 days. For daily egg mortality (T indicates the mean temperature (°C)): 1. 0.2%/day (5≤T≤30), (0.02(5-T)+0.2)% (T<5), (0.02(T-30)+0.2)% (T >30), 2. 0.2%/day (5≤T≤20), (0.02(5-T)+0.2)% (T<5), (0.02(T-20)+0.2)% (T>20), 3. 0.2%/day (15≤T0≤3), (0.02(15-T)+0.2)% (T<5), (0.02(T-30)+0.2)% (T>30). Totals A, B, C are the annual total mosquito abundance calculated by using an adult daily mortality of: (0.24(T-25)2+5)% for TotalA (this is used in this study), (0.24(T-24)2+5)% for TotalB, (0.24(T-26)2+5)% for TotalC. |
|||||||
|
C. tarsalis |
|||||||
|
|
|||||||
|
Trap of Fig. 5(a)1 |
Start |
Max |
Date of max |
Total |
|||
|
|
|||||||
|
Final model |
a |
17.55 |
Jul.25 |
326.8 |
|||
|
|
|||||||
|
Model1 |
b |
17.55 |
Jul.25 |
326.8 |
|||
|
Model2 |
c |
17.55 |
Jul.25 |
326.8 |
|||
|
Model3 |
d |
17.48 |
Jul.25 |
325.5 |
|||
|
|
|||||||
|
Trap of Fig. 5(a)2 |
|||||||
|
|
|||||||
|
Final model |
a |
18.80 |
Jul.22 |
396.3 |
|||
|
|
|||||||
|
Model1 |
b |
18.80 |
Jul.22 |
396.3 |
|||
|
Model2 |
c |
18.80 |
Jul.22 |
396.3 |
|||
|
Model3 |
d |
18.80 |
Jul.22 |
396.3 |
|||
|
|
|||||||
|
C. pipiens |
|||||||
|
|
|||||||
|
Start |
Egg Mortality |
Max |
Date of Max |
TotalA |
TotalB |
TotalC |
|
|
|
|||||||
|
Trap of Fig. 5(b)1 |
|||||||
|
Final model |
a |
1 |
53.00 |
Aug.18 |
868.0 |
1047.0 |
719.9 |
|
|
|||||||
|
Model1 |
a |
2 |
53.00 |
Aug.18 |
868.0 |
1047.0 |
719.9 |
|
Model2 |
a |
3 |
52.90 |
Aug.18 |
866.4 |
1045.0 |
718.6 |
|
Model3 |
b |
1 |
53.00 |
Aug.18 |
868.0 |
1047.0 |
719.9 |
|
Model4 |
b |
2 |
53.00 |
Aug.18 |
868.0 |
1047.0 |
719.9 |
|
Model5 |
b |
3 |
52.90 |
Aug.18 |
866.4 |
1045.0 |
718.6 |
|
Model6 |
c |
1 |
53.00 |
Aug.18 |
868.0 |
1047.0 |
719.9 |
|
Model7 |
c |
2 |
53.00 |
Aug.18 |
868.0 |
1047.0 |
719.9 |
|
Model8 |
c |
3 |
52.90 |
Aug.18 |
866.4 |
1045.0 |
718.6 |
|
|
|||||||
|
Trap of Fig. 5(b)2 |
|||||||
|
|
|||||||
|
Final model |
a |
1 |
53.04 |
Aug.12 |
1009.4 |
1186.8 |
851.1 |
|
|
|||||||
|
Model1 |
a |
2 |
53.03 |
Aug.12 |
1009.2 |
1186.6 |
850.9 |
|
Model2 |
a |
3 |
52.68 |
Aug.12 |
1002.4 |
1178.7 |
845.2 |
|
Model3 |
b |
1 |
53.04 |
Aug.12 |
1009.4 |
1186.8 |
851.1 |
|
Model4 |
b |
2 |
53.03 |
Aug.12 |
1009.2 |
1186.6 |
850.9 |
|
Model5 |
b |
3 |
52.68 |
Aug.12 |
1002.4 |
1178.7 |
845.2 |
|
Model6 |
c |
1 |
53.04 |
Aug.12 |
1009.4 |
1186.8 |
851.1 |
|
Model7 |
c |
2 |
53.03 |
Aug.12 |
1009.2 |
1186.6 |
850.9 |
|
Model8 |
c |
3 |
52.68 |
Aug.12 |
1002.4 |
1178.7 |
845.2 |
|
|
|||||||
|
Tachiiri et al. International Journal of Health Geographics 2006 5:21 doi:10.1186/1476-072X-5-21 |
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