Research
Comparative study of meningitis dynamics across nine African countries: a global perspective
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* Corresponding author: Hélène Broutin broutinh@gmail.com
1 G.E.M.I, UMR CNRS/IRD 2724, Equipe «Evolution des Systèmes Symbiotiques» Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), 911 Avenue Agropolis, BP 64501, 34394 Montpellier Cedex 5, France
2 ProdiG, UMR 8586 CNRS/Université. Paris1/Université Paris4/université Paris7/Ecole Pratique des Hautes Etudes (EPHE), 2 rue Valette, 75005 Paris, France
3 University of Maryland, Institute for Advanced Computer Studies. # 296 Biomolecular Sciences Building. College Park, MD, 20742 USA
4 UR086 LOCEAN, UMR 7617 IRD-CNRS-UPMC (Université Pierre et Marie Curie), 4 place Jussieu, 75252 Paris cedex 05, France
International Journal of Health Geographics 2007, 6:29 doi:10.1186/1476-072X-6-29
Published: 10 July 2007Abstract
Background
Meningococcal meningitis (MM) represents an important public health problem especially in the "meningitis belt" in Africa. Although seasonality of epidemics is well known with outbreaks usually starting in the dry season, pluri-annual cycles are still less understood and even studied. In this context, we aimed at study MM cases time series across 9 sahelo-sudanian countries to detect pluri-annual periodicity and determine or not synchrony between dynamics. This global and comparative approach allows a better understanding of MM evolution in time and space in the long-term.
Results
We used the most adapted mathematical tool to time series analyses, the wavelet method. We showed that, despite a strong consensus on the existence of a global pluri-annual cycle of MM epidemics, it is not the case. Indeed, even if a clear cycle is detected in all countries, these cycles are not as permanent and regular as generally admitted since many years. Moreover, no global synchrony was detected although many countries seemed correlated.
Conclusion
These results of the first large-scale study of MM dynamics highlight the strong interest and the necessity of a global survey of MM in order to be able to predict and prevent large epidemics by adapted vaccination strategy. International cooperation in Public Health and cross-disciplines studies are highly recommended to hope controlling this infectious disease.