Table 7

Performance comparison of geostatistical and Bayesian estimators: proportion of false positives.

Estimators

Lung cancer

Cervix cancer

LOW RISK THRESHOLD (RR = 1)

Average

% best result

Average

% best result

BYM model

0.071

30

0.077

12

Point Poisson kriging (adjacent counties)

0.069

20

0.066

14

ATA Poisson kriging (adjacent counties)

0.070

30

0.063

24

ATA Poisson kriging (32 neighbors)

0.072

20

0.061

50

HIGH RISK THRESHOLD

RR = 1.1

RR = 1.25

BYM model

0.069

20

0.080

4

Point Poisson kriging (adjacent counties)

0.066

14

0.065

12

ATA Poisson kriging (adjacent counties)

0.064

36

0.064

32

ATA Poisson kriging (32 neighbors)

0.064

30

0.060

52

Results obtained on average over 50 realizations generated for Regions 1 and 2. Poisson kriging was conducted using either adjacent counties (same neighbors as BYM Model) or the 32 closest counties in terms of distance between population-weighted centroids. ATA kriging accounts for the shape and size of the counties in the analysis. The proportion of false positives is derived from Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves computed using a low (Relative Risk, RR = 1) and high risk threshold (RR = 1.1, RR = 1.25). Bold numbers refer to best performances: few false positives. The second column gives the percentage of realizations where the particular method yields the best results.

Goovaerts and Gebreab International Journal of Health Geographics 2008 7:6   doi:10.1186/1476-072X-7-6